It's July, and the heat is on in the deep leagues! As the season heats up, it's time to dive into the risers and fallers of Week 15. Let's explore the players who are making waves and those who are struggling to keep up. From the surprising to the expected, there's a lot to unpack in this week's edition.
The Hot and Cold
Hot: Caleb Durbin, Boston Red Sox
Caleb Durbin is on fire! After a slow start to the season, Durbin has found his stride in June, slashing an impressive .325/.360/.614 with six homers and five stolen bases. His .313 BABIP is a bit higher than league average, but that's not the story here. What's truly fascinating is his underlying power metrics. Despite his elite whiff rate and decision value, Durbin's exit velocity, barrel, and hard hit rates rank in the bottom 10% of the league. This raises a deeper question: is Durbin's recent power surge sustainable? While his process chart shows strong contact and decision-making, the lack of power metrics improvement is concerning. In my opinion, Durbin might get to 20 steals and bat closer to .250, but I'd be shocked if he reached 15 dingers on the year. The Sox don't score a ton, and Durbin doesn't walk enough, so the homers might not keep coming.
Hot: Dominic Canzone, Seattle Mariners
Dominic Canzone is a hidden gem! With monster power metrics, Canzone launched four homers in May and slashed .314/.385/.643 with six homers and a 7/14 K/BB ratio in June. His average exit velocity of 93.4 MPH and 16% barrel rate rank in the top 6% of all hitters, and his hard hit rate is just outside the top 10%. Canzone doesn't run, but he does walk enough with a perfectly average 9.1% BB rate. He's mostly been in a platoon, but has hit lefties to the tune of .238/.429/.524 over a tiny 28 plate appearance sample. In my opinion, Canzone is a player to watch. With top-of-the-charts power metrics and a perfectly acceptable K rate, he's available in more than 80% of leagues. I want to see his roster rate over 50% by the time I write week 16.
Hot: Kyle Karros, Colorado Rockies
Kyle Karros is a young player with advanced plate discipline and power potential. The 23-year-old finished April with a .602 OPS, then posted a .675 OPS in May. In June, he busted out his hittin' stick, slashing .353/.429/.574 with a couple homers and a 7/11 BB/K ratio. His K rate on the season comes in at just over 21%, but we've noted a dramatic improvement recently. He also has a great walk rate at 12%, which is a great combo for OBP leagues. In my opinion, Karros is a player to get, especially in 98% of leagues. He has solid power metrics, and his process chart is trending up sharply. I love seeing young players with advanced plate discipline, and Karros fits the bill.
Cold: Nathan Lowe, Cincinnati Reds
Nathan Lowe is a player who has been scuffling. After a strong start to the season, Lowe finished June with a .226/.349/.283 line with no homers and somehow no RBI. His barrel and hard hit rates have dropped about three percentage points a piece since I last covered him, and he continues to pull everything he makes contact with. Lowe's decision value is right where it was three weeks ago, and his contact rate and power output have increased. However, his .343 BABIP is unsustainable, and his process chart doesn't show any significant improvement. In my opinion, Lowe is a player to avoid, especially in deeper leagues. I won't cut him in my 20-teamers, but in anything smaller than that, my patience has worn out.
Cold: Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays
Chandler Simpson is a player who has been struggling. After a strong start to the season, Simpson batted just .206 in June, with a .230 BABIP. His biggest concern is his poor success rate on steal attempts, with just 19/28 attempts successful. Simpson becomes even less viable in leagues that use OBP or OPS as scoring categories. In my opinion, Simpson is a player to avoid, especially in deeper leagues. If you need steals, check to see if Nasim Nunez or Henry Bolte are still available in your leagues.
Cold: Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves
Bryce Elder is a starting pitcher who is trending downward. After a strong start to the season, Elder was hit hard in June, ending the month with a bloated 8.10 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He allowed more hits and more homers, with a .329 BABIP. Elder isn't blowing anyone away with his heater, and his chase, whiff, and K rates are all well below league average. In my opinion, Elder is a player to avoid, especially in deeper leagues. I have very little confidence in Elder vs NYM on Friday, and if that one goes poorly, I think I'm out entirely.
Takeaway
As the season heats up, it's important to stay on top of the risers and fallers. While some players are making waves with their power and speed, others are struggling to keep up. In my opinion, the key to success in deep leagues is to be proactive and make adjustments as needed. Whether it's adding a hot player to your roster or dropping a cold one, staying ahead of the curve can make all the difference.
